Know exactly when you are on or off track.
The Forecasting sprint builds three compounding models: a bottoms-up revenue forecast to CM3, a growth model that maps your north star to operational levers, and a marketing event model that quantifies the value of every campaign and launch.
Recommended actions to close the gap
Forecasting
Bottoms-up forecast to CM3 by channel by day. See the gap in real time and know exactly what closes it.
Three models that compound on each other.
01
Forecasting
A bottoms-up revenue forecasting model combining spend and MER model, retention model, and marketing event model to give you the most accurate picture of what is coming down the road. Built to CM3 by channel by day, so you always know the gap between where you are and where you need to be.
- CM3 forecast by channel and day
- Gap analysis vs target in real time
- Scenario modelling for spend allocation
- Integrated with your growth model
02
Growth Model Mapping
Establish your true business KPIs: from your north star to your growth drivers and levers. We map the causal chain from team-level metrics up to revenue and margin, so everyone in the business knows what they are responsible for and why it matters.
- North star to growth driver mapping
- Team KPIs aligned to growth levers
- Rate-limiting step identification
- Growth model used across all sprints
03
Marketing Event Model
Map all of your historical marketing events (email campaigns, new product launches, sales and promotions) to understand the value they deliver to your bottom line. This enables you to understand exactly what marketing initiatives are required to close the gap on forecast or deliver a specified revenue number.
- Historical event-to-revenue attribution
- Campaign impact benchmarking
- Planning model for future campaigns
- Feeds directly into the forecast
Every KPI traced back to revenue.
The growth model is mapped out as part of the forecasting process. We establish your north star, the growth drivers that feed it, and the operational levers your team controls. This gives every metric in the business a clear link to the number that matters.
The growth model is then used across the rest of the system: it feeds into the OKR framework, informs experiment prioritisation, and provides the lens for the foundational audit recommendations.
Growth Model Mapping
North star to growth drivers to operational levers, defined once and reused everywhere.
Models built in your data layer, not a slide deck.
All three models are built directly in your BigQuery warehouse using your data. They update automatically as new data comes in, so the forecast is always current, not a point-in-time snapshot.
- Bottoms-up revenue forecast model built in your data layer
- Growth model tree (north star, drivers, levers, team KPIs)
- Marketing event impact model with historical benchmarks
- Scenario planning tool for spend and channel allocation
- Handover session and documentation
Pricing & Timeline
Delivered in 1 week.
Requires the data foundation (Unified Data Layer) to be live.
Typically the first capability sprint following the Growth Audit.
What Forecasting unlocks.
Once you have the forecast, these are the natural next steps.
Growth Operations
Install the OKR framework and meeting cadence that holds the team accountable to the forecast.
MomentumExperimentation
Build the engine that systematically closes the gap between actual performance and forecast.
FoundationGrowth Audit
The recommended entry point before Forecasting — diagnoses where to focus first.
Know what it takes to hit your targets.
Book a call and we will scope the Forecasting sprint against your current data and growth model setup.
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